Backcasting: act with the end in mind
‘Backcasting’ was first coined by Professor John B. Robinson (University of Toronto) in relation to energy policy analysis and forecasting (Robinson 1982). As opposed to the more directionally forward-thinking method of forecasting, backcasts are “’working backwards’ from a particular future end-point from the present to determine what policy measures would be required to reach that future” (Robinson 1982, p.337).
This methodology is applied by many sustainability researchers and NGOs, including the science-driven Canadian NGO, The Natural Step, who overlay an ABCD process to help organisations progress towards a more sustainable future.
Source: The Natural Step (https://www.naturalstep.ca/abcd)
The Natural Step’s ABCD process is:
1. Awareness & Visioning
2. Baseline Mapping
3. Creative Solutions
4. Decide on Priorities.
We can think of this as:
Beginning with the end in mind.
While ignorant of these formal methods earlier in my life, I have nonetheless applied them in and outside my career. Robinson’s methodology notes that they are useful for longer-term futures, and my use of them in my work life has had diverse applications such as for long-term public health and sustainable energy outlooks.
A perhaps more unusual use of backcasting was in my personal Mars-readiness training when I was one of Mars One’s 100 shortlisted astronaut candidates. Early in the selection process I spent extensive time backcasting with the overlaid ABCD process to understand the implications of different choices I might make at the time and more immediate future - all with the vision of being able to live a healthy and actively-contributing life on Mars in my 60’s onwards.
(Photography by: Maya Sugiharto, Agent Morphe)
Step 1: Awareness & Visioning
Imagining I was in my early 60’s, and living on Mars in a small community of people, what did I want to look and be like – physically, mentally, intellectually, spiritually? What might be needed of me in that community? New skills and knowledge, higher emotional intelligence, deeper understanding of myself and others, and an unbreakable yet adaptable body and mind. These were some of my key endpoints.
Step 2: Baseline Mapping
I was in my mid-late 40’s at the time. I had started going through perimenopause, was an endurance athlete, had 3 university degrees, and had an extensive and diverse career in health, energy and sustainability. Was that good enough? Rather than assume it would be fine, I critically evaluated myself from all angles, seeking expert opinion where necessary.
(Photography by: Maya Sugiharto, Agent Morphe)
Step 3: Creative Solutions
How do I remodel myself for a life on Mars?
Brainstorming to achieve something that no-one had ever done before required one first, critical step: emptying the cup. This Zen philosophy points to the fact that there is no room for fresh tea in a full cup. I applied this to my knowledge set and problem solving in particular. Just because something may have always been done a certain way, or was ‘normal’, does that mean it is the only way, or optimal?
Step 4: Decide on Priorities
This was the most overwhelming stage of the process. There were seemingly infinite options to take for the multitude of individual outcomes I wanted to become Mars-ready. The Natural Step have questions organisations can use to help prioritise actions. However, these were not known to me at the time. The approach I took was (and remains) multifaceted, including use of tools such as the Eisenhower Matrix and Taiichi Ohno’s Ten Precepts and their related principles.
Implementation
(Video from Digitally Baffled)
What was key was not just the act of extensive and considered planning, but the implementation.
How do you start to integrate an encyclopaedia of information and options into daily practice?
One measurable day at a time.
My mum refers to this as ‘eating the elephant’. An overwhelming amount of work can be achieved over time through taking one bite at a time. The important aspect is not necessarily where to take the first bite, but to ensure baseline metrics are taken, and regular quantified and qualified assessments of progress occur. Naturally it is helpful to know where to take the first bite for efficiency and sequencing if needed, however as the Chinese proverb says:
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.”
While it may be frustrating to discover that one action may have been better to start with, starting (or re-starting) now is always better than never starting at all.